An economic analysis commissioned by Amy’s Kitchen estimates that Americans who eat a diet high in ultra-processed foods face $359,836 in additional lifetime costs per person. The comparison is with those who eat a diet low in them. Health economist Lindsay Allen, PhD, of Proven Policy independently designed and conducted the analysis.
The estimate accounts for medical expenses, lost earnings, long-term care, and the economic value of shorter life expectancy. About $21,417 comes from health-related costs, and diabetes accounts for 76% of that amount. The largest share, about $338,419, reflects roughly 10 months of shorter life expectancy.
Allen compared an average American in the top fifth of ultra-processed food consumption with one in the bottom fifth. She included five conditions with the strongest evidence of a link: type 2 diabetes, heart disease, colorectal cancer, depression and Crohn’s disease. The model assumes a 20-year-old keeps the same relative level of consumption throughout adulthood. The estimate stayed above $200,000 in 98% of 1,000 simulation runs.
The studies behind the analysis are observational. They show an association between higher ultra-processed food consumption and worse health outcomes, but not that it causes them. No long-term clinical trials have tested whether ultra-processed food causes disease.
A companion survey of 2,000 Americans by Talker Research, also commissioned by Amy’s Kitchen, found that people underestimate how much ultra-processed food they eat. Respondents estimated that 16% of their diet is ultra-processed, while CDC data show about 53% of adults’ calories come from these foods. Nine in 10 said they eat ultra-processed foods without realizing it.
The survey also found that 42% of respondents would cut back if they knew ultra-processed foods could cost them more over time. Sixty-nine percent would pay more for higher-quality groceries to reduce long-term health risk. Talker Research conducted the survey online from Sept. 3 to 8, 2026.
Amy’s Kitchen will provide the full report, calculation workbook, and survey results to anyone upon request. The findings are part of its “Cooking. Not Chemistry.” campaign. Amy’s is a family-owned, organic prepared food company based in Petaluma, California, and it earned Non-UPF Verified certification from the Non-GMO Project for more than 125 products earlier this year.
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